Commodity Futures Spread Strategy for November, 2013 - Buy RBK14-HOJ14

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Commodity Futures Spread Strategy for November, 2013 - Buy RBK14-HOJ14

This spread combines several conditions to create good trading opportunity.

  • 93% Win in last 15 years
  • Seasonal patterns correlation - All patterns up to 20 years have similar movement and correlation
  • Historical lows - Current year is moving around historical lows with nice space for profit
  • Long seasonal window - A lot of time for seasonality to kick in. Possibility to take profit earlier

Please note that this is intercommodity spread where you must expect higher volatility

Backtest Buy RBK14-HOJ14 Entry: 2013-11-18 Exit: 2013-03-26

Years# Win% Win# Loss# APW% Days# APPD PF SL RRR ProfitØ DDØ WinØ LossØ BestØ WorstØ Total Profit Profit Loss SL ProfitØ
5 100% 5 0 60% 129 93.38 9999 4233.60 8.95 12046.44 -4310.88 12046.44 0.00 13531.56 -1511.16 60232.20 60232.20 0.00 1155.00
10 90% 9 1 50% 129 49.13 5.43 4233.60 2.43 6337.80 -6681.78 8632.40 -14313.60 9214.38 -3796.80 63378.00 77691.60 -14313.60 1155.00
15 93% 14 1 40% 129 39.97 6.40 4233.60 2.52 5156.76 -5103.84 6547.50 -14313.60 7322.28 -2902.48 77351.40 91665.00 -14313.60 1155.00
20 85% 17 3 50% 129 31.25 5.90 4233.60 2.48 4031.16 -4182.15 5709.53 -5479.60 5872.23 -2364.81 80623.20 97062.00 -16438.80 1155.00
28 75% 21 7 50% 129 23.34 5.48 4233.60 2.31 3010.95 -3632.70 4910.20 -2686.80 4687.05 -2031.60 84306.60 103114.20 -18807.60 1848.00
Equity for backtest
Year Enter date Enter price Exit date Exit price Points Profit Days# Best Date Best Worst Date Worst Drawdown
2013 2012-11-19 -0.1590 2013-03-26 0.2212 0.3802 15968.40 128 2013-03-26 15968.40 2012-11-23 -537.60 -2209.20
2012 2011-11-18 -0.3307 2012-03-26 0.1699 0.5006 21025.20 130 2012-03-26 21025.20 - 0.00 -3334.80
2011 2010-11-18 -0.0463 2011-03-25 -0.0053 0.0410 1722.00 128 2011-01-07 3019.80 2011-03-15 -4233.60 -7253.40
2010 2009-11-18 0.0783 2010-03-26 0.1388 0.0605 2541.00 129 2010-03-08 4368.00 2009-12-29 -1629.60 -2570.40
2009 2008-11-18 -0.3861 2009-03-26 0.0657 0.4518 18975.60 129 2009-03-04 23276.40 2008-11-20 -1155.00 -6186.60
2008 2007-11-19 0.0319 2008-03-26 -0.3089 -0.3408 -14313.60 129 2007-12-28 945.00 2008-03-17 -24032.40 -24977.40
2007 2006-11-20 0.0418 2007-03-26 0.2391 0.1973 8286.60 127 2007-03-26 8286.60 2006-12-06 -751.80 -3700.20
2006 2005-11-18 -0.0554 2006-03-24 0.0226 0.0780 3276.00 127 2006-01-13 7950.60 2006-02-27 -1848.00 -9798.60
2005 2004-11-18 0.0531 2005-03-24 0.0765 0.0234 982.80 127 2005-02-14 2389.80 2005-03-01 -3141.60 -5531.40
2004 2003-11-18 0.1155 2004-03-26 0.2325 0.1170 4914.00 130 2004-03-26 4914.00 2003-12-18 -638.40 -1255.80
2003 2002-11-18 0.0960 2003-03-26 0.1599 0.0639 2683.80 129 2003-03-26 2683.80 2003-02-26 -3687.60 -4515.00
2002 2001-11-19 0.0728 2002-03-26 0.1510 0.0782 3284.40 128 2002-03-19 4162.20 - 0.00 -877.80
2001 2000-11-20 0.0429 2001-03-26 0.1630 0.1201 5044.20 127 2001-03-19 5670.00 2000-12-08 -684.60 -1281.00
2000 1999-11-18 0.0766 2000-03-24 0.1291 0.0525 2205.00 128 2000-03-10 4393.20 2000-01-20 -831.60 -2188.20
1999 1998-11-18 0.0672 1999-03-26 0.0852 0.0180 756.00 129 1999-02-02 781.20 1999-01-11 -365.40 -877.80
1998 1997-11-18 0.0603 1998-03-26 0.0908 0.0305 1281.00 129 1998-03-23 1369.20 1997-11-20 -37.80 -890.40
1997 1996-11-18 0.0326 1997-03-26 0.0888 0.0562 2360.40 129 1997-03-07 3418.80 1996-11-21 -260.40 -1058.40
1996 1995-11-20 0.0511 1996-03-26 0.0084 -0.0427 -1793.40 128 1996-03-14 655.20 1996-03-20 -1923.60 -2578.80
1995 1994-11-18 0.0701 1995-03-24 0.1119 0.0418 1755.60 127 1995-03-24 1755.60 1994-12-16 -831.60 -1495.20
1994 1993-11-18 0.0157 1994-03-25 0.0078 -0.0079 -331.80 128 1994-03-16 411.60 1994-02-02 -705.60 -1062.60
1993 1992-11-18 0.0452 1993-03-26 0.0235 -0.0217 -911.40 129 1993-01-15 462.00 1993-03-23 -1898.40 -2360.40
1992 1991-11-18 0.0618 1992-03-26 0.0726 0.0108 453.60 130 1992-03-02 1491.00 1992-03-20 -126.00 -1617.00
1991 1990-11-19 0.0543 1991-03-26 0.1081 0.0538 2259.60 128 1991-03-11 3061.80 1991-02-11 -1507.80 -1919.40
1990 1989-11-20 0.0377 1990-03-26 0.0909 0.0532 2234.40 127 1990-02-05 3280.20 1989-12-11 -504.00 -2356.20
1989 1988-11-18 0.0401 1989-03-23 0.0388 -0.0013 -54.60 126 1989-01-24 1247.40 1989-01-09 -1398.60 -1974.00
1988 1987-11-18 0.0095 1988-03-25 0.0071 -0.0024 -100.80 129 1988-02-17 785.40 1988-01-07 -516.60 -1108.80
1987 1986-11-18 0.0228 1987-03-26 0.0491 0.0263 1104.60 129 1987-03-02 1108.80 1987-01-14 -365.40 -1108.80
1986 1985-11-18 -0.0203 1986-03-26 -0.0513 -0.0310 -1302.00 129 1986-01-23 2356.20 1986-03-19 -3271.80 -5628.00