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Spread is moving for last several months in range area of 0.5 - 2. Seasonality starts in March and ends in first half of June. Aggresive traders can enter at around 1.2, more conservative traders can wait for better price at around 0.8. Spread has nice support so stop loss should be placed below it at around 0.5. First logical area to place profit target is top of the channel at 2 where all or portion of position can be sold. Development from last years suggest potentional to rise to level around 3.
| Years# | Win% | Win# | Loss# | APW% | Days# | APPD | PF | SL | RRR | ProfitØ | DDØ | WinØ | LossØ | BestØ | WorstØ | Total Profit | Profit | Loss | SL ProfitØ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 100% | 5 | 0 | 40% | 102 | 7.86 | 9999 | 580.00 | 4.61 | 802.00 | -608.00 | 802.00 | 0.00 | 904.00 | -196.00 | 4010.00 | 4010.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 |
| 10 | 90% | 9 | 1 | 50% | 102 | 5.21 | 12.80 | 580.00 | 2.42 | 531.00 | -596.00 | 640.00 | -450.00 | 686.00 | -283.00 | 5310.00 | 5760.00 | -450.00 | 110.00 |
| 15 | 87% | 13 | 2 | 53% | 102 | 4.01 | 11.96 | 580.00 | 2.37 | 409.33 | -516.00 | 515.38 | -280.00 | 563.33 | -237.33 | 6140.00 | 6700.00 | -560.00 | 580.00 |
| 20 | 75% | 15 | 5 | 70% | 102 | 2.82 | 4.99 | 580.00 | 2.04 | 287.50 | -507.50 | 479.33 | -288.00 | 502.50 | -246.00 | 5750.00 | 7190.00 | -1440.00 | 580.00 |
| 30 | 70% | 21 | 9 | 67% | 102 | 2.26 | 3.49 | 580.00 | 1.76 | 230.33 | -470.33 | 461.43 | -308.89 | 434.67 | -246.33 | 6910.00 | 9690.00 | -2780.00 | 580.00 |
| 48 | 58% | 28 | 20 | 73% | 102 | 1.07 | 2.02 | 580.00 | 1.24 | 108.75 | -454.79 | 368.57 | -255.00 | 330.83 | -266.67 | 5220.00 | 10320.00 | -5100.00 | 580.00 |
| Year | Enter date | Enter price | Exit date | Exit price | Points | Profit | Days# | Best Date | Best | Worst Date | Worst | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2012-03-02 | 0.775 | 2012-06-11 | 3.775 | 3.000 | 1200.00 | 102 | 2012-06-11 | 1200.00 | - | 0.00 | -480.00 |
| 2011 | 2011-03-02 | 0.350 | 2011-06-10 | 4.800 | 4.450 | 1780.00 | 101 | 2011-06-09 | 1840.00 | 2011-04-01 | -110.00 | -320.00 |
| 2010 | 2010-03-02 | 1.400 | 2010-06-11 | 2.675 | 1.275 | 510.00 | 102 | 2010-06-11 | 510.00 | 2010-05-25 | -150.00 | -550.00 |
| 2009 | 2009-03-02 | 1.750 | 2009-06-11 | 1.950 | 0.200 | 80.00 | 102 | 2009-03-26 | 360.00 | 2009-04-09 | -140.00 | -500.00 |
| 2008 | 2008-03-03 | 1.150 | 2008-06-11 | 2.250 | 1.100 | 440.00 | 101 | 2008-03-28 | 610.00 | 2008-05-02 | -580.00 | -1190.00 |
| 2007 | 2007-03-02 | -0.100 | 2007-06-11 | 1.025 | 1.125 | 450.00 | 102 | 2007-06-08 | 590.00 | 2007-04-09 | -230.00 | -510.00 |
| 2006 | 2006-03-02 | 1.425 | 2006-06-09 | 1.850 | 0.425 | 170.00 | 100 | 2006-03-28 | 530.00 | 2006-03-07 | -60.00 | -560.00 |
| 2005 | 2005-03-02 | 1.550 | 2005-06-10 | 2.025 | 0.475 | 190.00 | 101 | 2005-06-03 | 210.00 | 2005-04-29 | -290.00 | -320.00 |
| 2004 | 2004-03-02 | 1.525 | 2004-06-10 | 0.400 | -1.125 | -450.00 | 101 | 2004-03-03 | 70.00 | 2004-05-06 | -1270.00 | -1340.00 |
| 2003 | 2003-03-03 | 1.025 | 2003-06-11 | 3.375 | 2.350 | 940.00 | 101 | 2003-06-11 | 940.00 | - | 0.00 | -190.00 |
| 2002 | 2002-03-04 | 0.750 | 2002-06-11 | 1.800 | 1.050 | 420.00 | 100 | 2002-04-08 | 620.00 | 2002-03-05 | -20.00 | -400.00 |
| 2001 | 2001-03-02 | 0.925 | 2001-06-11 | 0.650 | -0.275 | -110.00 | 102 | 2001-03-08 | 80.00 | 2001-05-29 | -280.00 | -360.00 |
| 2000 | 2000-03-02 | 1.100 | 2000-06-09 | 1.625 | 0.525 | 210.00 | 100 | 2000-06-01 | 290.00 | 2000-03-07 | -0.00 | -200.00 |
| 1999 | 1999-03-02 | 1.450 | 1999-06-11 | 1.550 | 0.100 | 40.00 | 102 | 1999-03-31 | 230.00 | 1999-06-08 | -200.00 | -430.00 |
| 1998 | 1998-03-02 | 0.850 | 1998-06-11 | 1.525 | 0.675 | 270.00 | 102 | 1998-06-08 | 370.00 | 1998-04-21 | -230.00 | -390.00 |
| 1997 | 1997-03-03 | 2.000 | 1997-06-11 | 2.425 | 0.425 | 170.00 | 101 | 1997-06-05 | 290.00 | 1997-05-01 | -170.00 | -320.00 |
| 1996 | 1996-03-04 | -0.975 | 1996-06-11 | -2.300 | -1.325 | -530.00 | 100 | 1996-04-25 | 250.00 | 1996-06-03 | -640.00 | -890.00 |
| 1995 | 1995-03-02 | 0.975 | 1995-06-09 | 0.700 | -0.275 | -110.00 | 100 | 1995-04-11 | 440.00 | 1995-06-08 | -110.00 | -550.00 |
| 1994 | 1994-03-02 | 0.300 | 1994-06-10 | 1.100 | 0.800 | 320.00 | 101 | 1994-06-07 | 540.00 | 1994-04-06 | -90.00 | -220.00 |
| 1993 | 1993-03-02 | 0.625 | 1993-06-11 | 0.025 | -0.600 | -240.00 | 102 | 1993-03-03 | 80.00 | 1993-03-18 | -350.00 | -430.00 |
| 1992 | 1992-03-02 | 0.750 | 1992-06-11 | -0.525 | -1.275 | -510.00 | 102 | 1992-03-05 | 20.00 | 1992-05-05 | -550.00 | -570.00 |
| 1991 | 1991-03-04 | 0.825 | 1991-06-11 | 1.050 | 0.225 | 90.00 | 100 | 1991-06-10 | 90.00 | 1991-04-26 | -330.00 | -330.00 |
| 1990 | 1990-03-02 | 0.550 | 1990-06-11 | -0.275 | -0.825 | -330.00 | 102 | 1990-04-30 | 90.00 | 1990-06-07 | -390.00 | -480.00 |
| 1989 | 1989-03-02 | 1.100 | 1989-06-09 | 0.300 | -0.800 | -320.00 | 100 | 1989-05-25 | 280.00 | 1989-06-09 | -320.00 | -600.00 |
| 1988 | 1988-03-02 | 0.475 | 1988-06-10 | 2.100 | 1.625 | 650.00 | 101 | 1988-06-10 | 650.00 | - | 0.00 | -380.00 |
| 1987 | 1987-03-02 | -0.250 | 1987-06-11 | 1.900 | 2.150 | 860.00 | 102 | 1987-06-11 | 860.00 | 1987-03-18 | -30.00 | -230.00 |
| 1986 | 1986-03-03 | 1.600 | 1986-06-11 | 2.375 | 0.775 | 310.00 | 101 | 1986-06-11 | 310.00 | 1986-05-09 | -210.00 | -470.00 |
| 1985 | 1985-03-04 | 1.450 | 1985-06-11 | 1.000 | -0.450 | -180.00 | 100 | 1985-04-24 | 20.00 | 1985-04-02 | -250.00 | -260.00 |
| 1984 | 1984-03-02 | 0.600 | 1984-06-11 | 1.700 | 1.100 | 440.00 | 102 | 1984-06-06 | 520.00 | 1984-03-07 | -40.00 | -170.00 |
| 1983 | 1983-03-02 | 0.950 | 1983-06-10 | 1.325 | 0.375 | 150.00 | 101 | 1983-06-10 | 150.00 | 1983-04-06 | -350.00 | -470.00 |
| 1982 | 1982-03-02 | 0.325 | 1982-06-11 | 0.000 | -0.325 | -130.00 | 102 | 1982-04-15 | 140.00 | 1982-05-28 | -280.00 | -420.00 |
| 1981 | 1981-03-02 | 1.225 | 1981-06-11 | 0.825 | -0.400 | -160.00 | 102 | 1981-05-27 | 390.00 | 1981-04-16 | -170.00 | -550.00 |
| 1980 | 1980-03-03 | 1.100 | 1980-06-11 | 1.350 | 0.250 | 100.00 | 101 | 1980-05-29 | 200.00 | 1980-04-23 | -410.00 | -580.00 |
| 1979 | 1979-03-02 | 1.325 | 1979-06-11 | 1.100 | -0.225 | -90.00 | 102 | - | 0.00 | 1979-04-30 | -570.00 | -570.00 |
| 1978 | 1978-03-02 | 0.450 | 1978-06-09 | 1.000 | 0.550 | 220.00 | 100 | 1978-06-06 | 240.00 | 1978-05-30 | -240.00 | -350.00 |
| 1977 | 1977-03-02 | 1.275 | 1977-06-10 | 1.325 | 0.050 | 20.00 | 101 | 1977-06-09 | 110.00 | 1977-05-10 | -240.00 | -330.00 |
| 1976 | 1976-03-02 | 0.625 | 1976-06-11 | 0.375 | -0.250 | -100.00 | 102 | 1976-03-16 | 210.00 | 1976-04-13 | -720.00 | -930.00 |
| 1975 | 1975-03-03 | 0.075 | 1975-06-11 | -1.750 | -1.825 | -730.00 | 101 | 1975-03-12 | 130.00 | 1975-06-09 | -790.00 | -920.00 |
| 1974 | 1974-03-04 | 0.425 | 1974-06-11 | -0.150 | -0.575 | -230.00 | 100 | 1974-03-06 | 400.00 | 1974-05-22 | -600.00 | -1000.00 |
| 1973 | 1973-03-02 | -0.200 | 1973-06-11 | 0.025 | 0.225 | 90.00 | 102 | 1973-04-11 | 290.00 | 1973-04-10 | -210.00 | -400.00 |
| 1972 | 1972-03-02 | -0.200 | 1972-06-09 | 0.050 | 0.250 | 100.00 | 100 | 1972-06-05 | 240.00 | 1972-04-06 | -70.00 | -140.00 |
| 1971 | 1971-03-02 | -0.200 | 1971-06-11 | -0.050 | 0.150 | 60.00 | 102 | 1971-03-03 | 80.00 | 1971-04-23 | -70.00 | -150.00 |
| 1970 | 1970-03-02 | -0.300 | 1970-06-11 | -0.550 | -0.250 | -100.00 | 102 | 1970-04-14 | 80.00 | 1970-05-28 | -140.00 | -220.00 |
| 1969 | 1969-03-03 | 0.125 | 1969-06-11 | -0.925 | -1.050 | -420.00 | 101 | - | 0.00 | 1969-05-19 | -420.00 | -420.00 |
| 1968 | 1968-03-04 | 0.000 | 1968-06-11 | -0.200 | -0.200 | -80.00 | 100 | 1968-04-02 | 50.00 | 1968-04-29 | -100.00 | -150.00 |
| 1967 | 1967-03-02 | 0.500 | 1967-06-09 | 0.050 | -0.450 | -180.00 | 100 | 1967-04-27 | 50.00 | 1967-06-09 | -180.00 | -230.00 |
| 1966 | 1966-03-02 | 0.500 | 1966-06-10 | 0.600 | 0.100 | 40.00 | 101 | 1966-05-26 | 120.00 | 1966-03-31 | -80.00 | -130.00 |
| 1965 | 1965-03-02 | -0.275 | 1965-06-11 | -0.525 | -0.250 | -100.00 | 102 | 1965-05-05 | 110.00 | 1965-06-10 | -120.00 | -230.00 |
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The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains. Past results are not indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
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